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A comparative analysis of the forecasting ability of classic econometric and fuzzy models

V. Profillidis, G. Botzoris. Democritus University of Thrace

Abstract

The present paper analyzes the accuracy of forecasting ability that can be reached by the use of fuzzy techniques in comparison to classic econometric models. Following a brief presentation of the fuzzy technique, a revue of existing methods and models for forecasting rail passenger demand is presented. Based on data of rail passenger demand of Greek Railways, the parameters affecting demand are defined with the use of the appropriate statistical controls. Using these para-meters, econometric and fuzzy models are developed. The forecasting ability of each model and the reduction of ambiguity are checked as well as their range and application conditions.

 

 

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