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Volume VII, Number 2. November 2002

Uncertainty in economics: the heritage of G.L.S. Shackle

George J. Klir. Binghamton University

For long time, the mainstream economics has been characterized, on the one hand, by a sequence of axio-matic systems of increasing precision and mathematical sophis-tication and, on the other hand, a persistent gap between economic reality and predictions derived from these ever more sophisticated systems. To alleviate this undesirable situation,…
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Behavioristic analysis and comparative evaluation of intelligent methodologies for short-term stock price forecasting

D.E. Koulouriotis, D.M. Emiris, I.E. Diakoulakis, C. Zopounidis. Technical University of Crete

Stock price forecasting has been in the center of interest of the stock market analysts and of the research community during the last four decades. A number of important studies have been con-ducted dealing primarily with the forecasting effectiveness of various models and methods; however, short-term stock price forecasting has…
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On the treatment of uncertainty in portfolio selection

Francesc J. Ortí, José Sáez. Universidad de Barcelona

Antonio Terceño. Universidad Rovira i Virgili

Markowitz's classical model, as well as other models derived from it (Tobin, Black, …), have raised the problem of the analysis and selection of portfolio securities using statistical instruments that assume a regular and efficient market. This is not usually the case. Although some authors have studied this problem using…
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Effectiveness of system identification for complex systems by the fuzzy adaptive GMDH

Tomonori Nishikawa. Ryutsu-Keizai University

Shizue Shimizu. Kyoei University

Masafumi Imai. Toyohasi Sozo Senior College

This paper discusses and verifies effectiveness about the Fuzzy Adaptive GMDH applied the concept of the fuzzy set to the identification process of the adaptive GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) as the modeling a complex system. The adaptive GMDH [1] is enhancing ability of basic GMDH [2] and is…
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Capital budgeting in health organizations: application of the multicriteria method PROMETHEE V

A.S. Fernández Castro. Universidad de La Coruña

There are two outstanding characteristics of the capital budgeting process in health organizations: qualitative factors are considered in the decision process, and organizations are subject to severe financial constraints. The first of these characteristics suggests multicritera methods to be applied to the problem, and the second one recommends using mathematical…
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