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ISSN (print) 1136-0593 · ISSN (online) 2445-4192

Modeling of economic uncertainty

Hans Schjær-Jacobsen. Danfoss Management Institute


Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities (including Monte Carlo simulation), interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple and quadruple esti-mates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.



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