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ISSN (print) 1136-0593 · ISSN (online) 2445-4192

Planning business activity under uncertainty

Leonid A. Kuznetsov, Andrew S. Morozov. Lipetsk State Technical University


The success of the modern enterprise is determined in many respects by manage-ment quality, i.e. opportunities and ratio-nality of management decisions. But the commercial organization is a very compli-cated structure formed by a large quantity of interconnected substances of comple-tely different classes mechanisms, peo-ple, data entities–in this connection the problem of control action formation isn’t seemed to be so trivial. However me-thods1 of commercial organizations mana-gement have existed from the very outset of their appearance. The complication consists in basing of systems of equations upon the formal methods of control problems solution. Those systems of equations bind up variables used in solution. Restrictions and optimization are formed on account of equations. The enterprise financial situation2 is charac-terized completely by its book-keeping. In spite of national features book-keeping is the table form of representation all of the enterprise assets and liabilities. In book-keeping the equations and variables aren’t used, yet the formulas and varia-bles values are applied. Thus the use of the formal methods is difficult for control of real enterprise economics. In works3 the book-keeping formal representation is elaborated be way of system of equations. The system represents correlation of financial sums characterizing the enter-prise status. Such representation allows using the formal methods of concrete enterprise optimization by means of their embedding in book-keeping computer-based systems. In the present work the possibility of carelessness inclusion is researched on the base of formal book-keeping representation. For example the careless-ness could be bound up with uncertainty of raw materials and finished commodity prices. Calculation of market uncertainty allows getting the solutions more adequate to the real situation.



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